Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems
Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems
Overview
This book begins by motivating the use of Bayesian statistics as a natural way of revising beliefs with empirical data. Basic computational issues are discussed and then computer-assisted methods for Bayesian computation are covered. The linear model, which continues to have many applications in the business disciplines, is addressed, and the importance of sensitivity analysis and monitoring MCMC performance is emphasized. In addition, model comparison is discussed since it is fundamental to the business disciplines. More advanced models including hierarchical models, generalized linear models, and latent variable models are presented, providing readers with experience using these more advanced models. Throughout, emphasis is placed on practical applications with frequent forays into "In Practice" book sections. In these sections, a worked example is provided using business data sets drawn from multiple disciplines and associated. WinBUGS and R code is included for these examples and is discussed in parallel to the example. The idea of these sections is to embed the practical orientation of Bayesian statistics using these freely available tools. Each chapter concludes with an exercise section and summary. Chapter coverage includes: Introduction to Bayesian Methods (introduces Bayesian key concepts for usage throughout the book); A First Look at Bayesian Computation (provides an overview of analytic computation and distributional considerations for inference and discusses binomial data and the beta distribution); Computer-Assisted Bayesian Computation (introduces the power of Monte Carlo computational techniques in the context of Bayesian inference, described conjugate analysis in detail, and discusses inference for the normal and Poisson distributions); Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Regression Models (illustrates Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques in the context of Bayesian inference and discusses the simple linear regression model); Regression Models Using WinBUGS (illustrates that WinBUGS software can be used to undertake Gibbs and Metropolis sampling, which is advantageous for managers since more time can be spent on the modeling and the examination of results as opposed to customized writing of MCMC samplers); Assessing MCMC Performance (discusses that it is critically important to ensure that the Markov chain is simulating from the posterior and provided tools for examining this issue); Model Checking and Model Comparison (examines methods for model comparison and contrasts the characteristics of the different methods); Hierarchal Models (illustrates hierarchical models from a Bayesian approach using WinBUGS and describes that these models have much to offer those wishing to understand business problems and are a natural extension of conventional linear models); Generalized Linear Models (illustrates generalized linear models from a Bayesian approach using WinBUGS and addresses that often times business data does not take the form of continuous data so generalized linear models add much value to business insight); Models for Difficult Data (addresses ways to analyze data that do not conform to standard assumptions); and Introduction to Latent Variable Models (discusses Bayesian approaches to latent-data models since many important sources of business data cannot be directly observed).Description
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- Used - Acceptable: All pages and the cover are intact, but shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Pages may include limited notes, highlighting, or minor water damage but the text is readable. Item may but the dust cover may be missing. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting, but the text cannot be obscured or unreadable.
Note: Some electronic material access codes are valid only for one user. For this reason, used books, including books listed in the Used – Like New condition, may not come with functional electronic material access codes.
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Items returned to us as a result of our error will receive a full refund,some returns may be subject to a restocking fee of 7% of the total item price, please contact a customer care team member to see if your return is subject. Returns that arrived on time and were as described are subject to a restocking fee.
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If the item is returned to us for any of the following reasons, a 15% restocking fee will be applied to your refund total and you will be asked to pay for return shipping:
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You should expect to receive your refund within four weeks of giving your package to the return shipper, however, in many cases you will receive a refund more quickly. This time period includes the transit time for us to receive your return from the shipper (5 to 10 business days), the time it takes us to process your return once we receive it (3 to 5 business days), and the time it takes your bank to process our refund request (5 to 10 business days).
If you need to return an item, please Contact Us with your order number and details about the product you would like to return. We will respond quickly with instructions for how to return items from your order.
Shipping Cost
We'll pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (you received an incorrect or defective item, etc.). In other cases, you will be responsible for paying for your own shipping costs for returning your item. Shipping costs are non-refundable. If you receive a refund, the cost of return shipping will be deducted from your refund.
Depending on where you live, the time it may take for your exchanged product to reach you, may vary.
If you are shipping an item over $75, you should consider using a trackable shipping service or purchasing shipping insurance. We don’t guarantee that we will receive your returned item.
Overview
This book begins by motivating the use of Bayesian statistics as a natural way of revising beliefs with empirical data. Basic computational issues are discussed and then computer-assisted methods for Bayesian computation are covered. The linear model, which continues to have many applications in the business disciplines, is addressed, and the importance of sensitivity analysis and monitoring MCMC performance is emphasized. In addition, model comparison is discussed since it is fundamental to the business disciplines. More advanced models including hierarchical models, generalized linear models, and latent variable models are presented, providing readers with experience using these more advanced models. Throughout, emphasis is placed on practical applications with frequent forays into "In Practice" book sections. In these sections, a worked example is provided using business data sets drawn from multiple disciplines and associated. WinBUGS and R code is included for these examples and is discussed in parallel to the example. The idea of these sections is to embed the practical orientation of Bayesian statistics using these freely available tools. Each chapter concludes with an exercise section and summary. Chapter coverage includes: Introduction to Bayesian Methods (introduces Bayesian key concepts for usage throughout the book); A First Look at Bayesian Computation (provides an overview of analytic computation and distributional considerations for inference and discusses binomial data and the beta distribution); Computer-Assisted Bayesian Computation (introduces the power of Monte Carlo computational techniques in the context of Bayesian inference, described conjugate analysis in detail, and discusses inference for the normal and Poisson distributions); Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Regression Models (illustrates Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques in the context of Bayesian inference and discusses the simple linear regression model); Regression Models Using WinBUGS (illustrates that WinBUGS software can be used to undertake Gibbs and Metropolis sampling, which is advantageous for managers since more time can be spent on the modeling and the examination of results as opposed to customized writing of MCMC samplers); Assessing MCMC Performance (discusses that it is critically important to ensure that the Markov chain is simulating from the posterior and provided tools for examining this issue); Model Checking and Model Comparison (examines methods for model comparison and contrasts the characteristics of the different methods); Hierarchal Models (illustrates hierarchical models from a Bayesian approach using WinBUGS and describes that these models have much to offer those wishing to understand business problems and are a natural extension of conventional linear models); Generalized Linear Models (illustrates generalized linear models from a Bayesian approach using WinBUGS and addresses that often times business data does not take the form of continuous data so generalized linear models add much value to business insight); Models for Difficult Data (addresses ways to analyze data that do not conform to standard assumptions); and Introduction to Latent Variable Models (discusses Bayesian approaches to latent-data models since many important sources of business data cannot be directly observed).Description
Condition Guidelines
Books - New and Used
The following guidelines apply to books:
- New: A brand-new copy with cover and original protective wrapping intact. Books with markings of any kind on the cover or pages, books marked as "Bargain" or "Remainder," or with any other labels attached, may not be listed as New condition.
- Used - Good: All pages and cover are intact (including the dust cover, if applicable). Spine may show signs of wear. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting. May include "From the library of" labels. Shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Item may be missing bundled media.
- Used - Acceptable: All pages and the cover are intact, but shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Pages may include limited notes, highlighting, or minor water damage but the text is readable. Item may but the dust cover may be missing. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting, but the text cannot be obscured or unreadable.
Note: Some electronic material access codes are valid only for one user. For this reason, used books, including books listed in the Used – Like New condition, may not come with functional electronic material access codes.
Shipping & Delivery
Shipping Fees
- Stevens Books offers FREE SHIPPING everywhere in the United States for ALL non-book orders, and $3.99 for each book.
- Packages are shipped from Monday to Friday.
- No additional fees and charges.
Delivery Times
The usual time for processing an order is 24 hours (1 business day), but may vary depending on the availability of products ordered. This period excludes delivery times, which depend on your geographic location.
Estimated delivery times:
- Standard Shipping: 5-8 business days
- Expedited Shipping: 3-5 business days
Shipping method varies depending on what is being shipped.
Tracking
All orders are shipped with a tracking number. Once your order has left our warehouse, a confirmation e-mail with a tracking number will be sent to you. You will be able to track your package at all times.
Damaged Parcel
If your package has been delivered in a PO Box, please note that we are not responsible for any damage that may result (consequences of extreme temperatures, theft, etc.).
If you have any questions regarding shipping or want to know about the status of an order, please contact us or email to support@stevensbooks.com.
Returns & Refunds
You may return most items within 30 days of delivery for a full refund.
To be eligible for a return, your item must be unused and in the same condition that you received it. It must also be in the original packaging.
Several types of goods are exempt from being returned. Perishable goods such as food, flowers, newspapers or magazines cannot be returned. We also do not accept products that are intimate or sanitary goods, hazardous materials, or flammable liquids or gases.
Additional non-returnable items:
- Gift cards
- Downloadable software products
- Some health and personal care items
To complete your return, we require a tracking number, which shows the items which you already returned to us.
There are certain situations where only partial refunds are granted (if applicable)
- Book with obvious signs of use
- CD, DVD, VHS tape, software, video game, cassette tape, or vinyl record that has been opened
- Any item not in its original condition, is damaged or missing parts for reasons not due to our error
- Any item that is returned more than 30 days after delivery
Items returned to us as a result of our error will receive a full refund,some returns may be subject to a restocking fee of 7% of the total item price, please contact a customer care team member to see if your return is subject. Returns that arrived on time and were as described are subject to a restocking fee.
Items returned to us that were not the result of our error, including items returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address, will be refunded the original item price less our standard restocking fees.
If the item is returned to us for any of the following reasons, a 15% restocking fee will be applied to your refund total and you will be asked to pay for return shipping:
- Item(s) no longer needed or wanted.
- Item(s) returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address.
- Item(s) returned to us that were not a result of our error.
You should expect to receive your refund within four weeks of giving your package to the return shipper, however, in many cases you will receive a refund more quickly. This time period includes the transit time for us to receive your return from the shipper (5 to 10 business days), the time it takes us to process your return once we receive it (3 to 5 business days), and the time it takes your bank to process our refund request (5 to 10 business days).
If you need to return an item, please Contact Us with your order number and details about the product you would like to return. We will respond quickly with instructions for how to return items from your order.
Shipping Cost
We'll pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (you received an incorrect or defective item, etc.). In other cases, you will be responsible for paying for your own shipping costs for returning your item. Shipping costs are non-refundable. If you receive a refund, the cost of return shipping will be deducted from your refund.
Depending on where you live, the time it may take for your exchanged product to reach you, may vary.
If you are shipping an item over $75, you should consider using a trackable shipping service or purchasing shipping insurance. We don’t guarantee that we will receive your returned item.
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